3 Hazel R. Parry Darren J. Kriticos Jean-Philippe Aurambout Wendy Griffiths Kyla Finlay Paul De Barro Jo Luck 2011 Climate Change, Biosecurity and Migratory Insect Pests: Integrating Population Dynamics with ‘Over the Horizon’ Invasion Ecology Science Exchange 2011 Barossa Valley 09/02/2011 <p>Migratory insect pests can pose recurrent biosecurity risks as pests disperse from source areas into seasonally vulnerable regions. Under a changing global climate, pest risks may alter as migration patterns shift; for example changes in the timing of migration events to higher latitudes. Future pest impacts are likely to be influenced by a combination of both direct and indirect factors, such as changes in pest demography, geographical ranges and host growing conditions. Understanding such complex future scenarios requires a simulation approach to project the implications for biosecurity.</p> <p>The CRCNPB 10071 project has focused on the case study of the population dynamics of the aphid <em>Rhopalosiphum padi</em> in several agricultural landscapes of Australia. The spatially-explicit aphid-wheat-CYDV model demonstrates a novel integration of (1) a coupled spatial population dynamics model of host-disease-vector; (2) airborne pest dispersal simulation; (3) climate change scenarios to estimate future risk from existing pest species in the Australian agricultural environment.</p> <p>Here we present successful simulation results from the coupled model in Spatial Dymex to examine impacts of BYDV and changing CO2 levels on the aphid-wheat-virus system, as well as the spatial simulation of aphid dispersal across the landscape into wheat crops from their over-summer grassland hosts.</p> <p>This work carried out by the CRCNPB 10071 project has been an important precursor to the development of a bid for future CRC work on biosecurity threats in Australia via wind-borne dispersal.</p>