@article { NPB1309, title = {A method for statistical design of complex biosecurity surveillance systems}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Biosecurity surveillance problems are typically complex, with multiple threats, heterogeneous risk surfaces and arrayed detection methods. Available design techniques do not deal with complexity and instead attempt to reduce it, by designing for single threats by a single detection method, or ignoring statistics and designing to budget or other pragmatic considerations. We were challenged to design a statistically based surveillance system (SS) for a complex application and developed a design method that has potential for broader use.

The context is a high-value island nature reserve where a major industrial development has been approved, contingent inter alia on a detection program having power (probability of detection given presence) of 80% for non-indigenous species (NIS) of invertebrates, vertebrates and plants. The method addresses typical design complexity as follows:

We designed integrated SSs for each of invertebrate, vertebrate and plan NIS. Implementation has commenced and further desktop and field studies will examine robustness and validity. Designs will be adapted as data are acquired and analysed. We describe the design method and its application in this case study.

}, author = {Whittle, P and Barrett, S and Jarrad, F and Murray, J and Mengersen, K and Stoklosa, R} }