CRC for Plant Biosecurity - Cook

Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools - Final Report

VANMEURSA — Mon, 24 May 2010 06:36:09 +0000

Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools - Final Report

Decision support tools for prioritising biosecurity risk

VANMEURSA — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:42:38 +0000

The research team for the highly successful CRC10010: Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools project held its final Expert Reference Panel in early December. The meeting was the culmination of over two years of work for this multi-disciplinary group of researchers from CSIRO, Department of Primary Industries Victoria and Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia.

The team, led by Dr David Cook (CSIRO), presented decision-support technologies designed to assist the apple and pear, potato, vegetable and various new and emerging industries to plan for invasive species impacts. These decision-support tools combine computer simulation models of outbreak scenarios and multi-criteria analysis to suggest the highest priority threats, how future incursions might be managed and how to contend with information uncertainty.

While providing an overview of the successes of the project, the workshop’s primary focus was on the bioeconomic models designed to simulate the economic damage that could be caused in future pest and disease outbreaks. The project team demonstrated the features of the model by using a case study familiar to most attendees at the workshop; fire blight. The panel discussion revolved around the key model inputs, assumptions, outputs and how these can be presented in a manner suitable for group decision-making workshops.

The workshop was well attended by both industry and regulators, with the panel being made up of a variety of representatives from organisations including:

Apple and Pear Australia Limited (APAL)
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry – BioSIRT Program
CSIRO
Horticulture Australia Limited
Office of the Chief Plant Protection Officer
Plant Health Australia
Rural Industry Research Development Corporation (RIRDIC)

The tools delivered at the workshop were well received by the panel, with both industry and regulators agreeing that they would provide valuable assistance in prioritising biosecurity threats and directing resource allocation. Having achieved all agreed industry milestones, the project team have agreed to investigate further opportunities to employ decision-support tools with APAL and RIRDC in the remaining time of the project to ensure the uptake of the technologies they have produced.

Article written by: Cain Roberts, Delivery and Adoption Officer

Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools Workshop

VANMEURSA — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 23:26:06 +0000

There is a great deal of uncertainty about possible invasive species impacts on Australia, and this uncertainty often prevents the use of quantitative tools in biosecurity planning. The Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity project Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools (ERAT) is producing technologies to help plant industries plan for invasive species impacts despite this uncertainty. The project combines computer simulation models of outbreak scenarios and multi-criteria analysis to suggest the highest priority threats, and how future incursions might be managed. However, while the assessment of invasive species risks is important, the project has been designed to maximise industry uptake of biosecurity information, and hence places a strong emphasis on the communication of risk.

The ERAT team has spent much of the past year collecting the data necessary to prepare detailed threat data sheets for over 100 species that have the potential to affect Australian horticultural industries. The team have constructed and comprehensively tested the simulation model, and are currently entering the necessary parameters from the data sheets into the model so that each species has a corresponding impact simulation. While carrying out these tasks a system of reporting both data inputs and results has been developed. The system communicates in very clear, simple terms to diverse pest prioritisation groups.

Through the CRCNPB Delivery and Adoption Program, the project team held a multi-criteria workshop with stakeholders on the 6-7 May 2009 in Canberra. This workshop presented the first opportunity to use the tools developed in ERAT with an industry group. The workshop involved a set of 10 species being ranked by attendees according to a list of criteria of their choosing. To help them, the decision-making group were provided with data sheets and simulation model results prepared for each species, an independent workshop facilitator, and an interactive multi-criteria software tool. By the end of the workshop the group had produced a priority list they were comfortable with, and had used the materials provided to good effect.

To build on the success of this workshop the project team plan to hold a follow-up workshop with one industry group to prioritise an additional list of species. Other potential users of the prioritisation technique developed by the project team will be invited along to witness the technique in action. This is not linked to a workshop milestone, but the project team believes this second workshop will promote the uptake of the technique the project has developed.

Contact: Dr David Cook, david.c.cook@csiro.au