The project aims to determine the potential risks associated with climate change for key wheat pathogens; wheat using stripe rust, crown rot and Barley yellow dwarf virus and its aphid vector.  The research approach is three-fold:

1. Modelling the effects of increasing temperature on the biology and distribution of pests and diseases and vectors e.g. the bird cherry oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi
2. Collecting real-time data on host-pathogen/pest interactions from field experiments using wheat grown under elevated CO2, and
3. Developing adaptation plans for government and industry based on the above data to mitigate any increased risks posed by climate change to biosecurity of wheat crops.

What is the biosecurity problem?

Climate change is clearly recognised as a major threat to agricultural systems. The expected increase in temperature, atmospheric CO2, heavy and unseasonal rains, increased humidity, drought and cyclones, are likely to affect crops, pests and diseases and host pathogen interactions. However, the extent to which climate change will affect emergency pests and pathogens and their hosts is not clearly understood. A review of the impacts of climate change on plant biosecurity (Aurambout et al. 2006) indicated a need to document pest and disease responses to climate change and incorporate them into our management and contingency planning. To respond to future climates, changes to industry practices and government policies may be required. This project will identify the potential risks associated with climate change and plant biosecurity.  Adaptation plans will be developed around these risks to inform industry practice and policy.

The main outputs of this project are to:

• provide new knowledge on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on key wheat diseases, and
• develop a series of tools to inform industry and government to enhance our contingency planning to include the influence of climate change on biosecurity

Who will be the end-users of this research?

• Biosecurity policy and decision makers e.g. BA, OCCPO, PHA, state biosecurity agencies,
• PHA - data and tools will enhance threat categorisation and industry biosecurity plans
• OCCPO - data and tools may be used in incursion responses
• Industry - to adjust management strategies and biosecurity plans and increase their level of preparedness for climate change

This is a screenshot output from the Asian citrus psyllid - citrus growth model using the IPPC A1Fi climate change scenario with a Google Earth application. The ground overlay represents daily spatial variation in the population of adult psyllids displayed sequentially in an animation of 365 frames for the year 1990. The graphics depict temporal variations in the population of the Asian citrus psyllid and increasing temperature for the years 1990, 2030 and 2070 for a specific location. A total of 11,330 graphics can be accessed in the interface (one graph for each 50 km, two-grid cell on which the model was run) providing Australian coverage can be accessed in the interface (one graph for each 50km two-grid cell on which the model was run) providing Australian coverage.

The CRCNPB would like to thank Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research for their contribution to this project.

The Surveillance Simulation project produced a simulation environment which will be used to estimate rates of spread of a disease and its time-changing extent over the landscape. It will provide computer-based models to disease outbreak managers, to predict the spread of emergent plant diseases and pests and improve response by biosecurity teams.

Research outcomes:

• A surveillance prediction simulation platform for validating surveillance strategies,
• novel landscape-level modelling techniques for pest spread simulation, and
• validated simulation technology using historical emergency plant pest incursion data.

Research implications:

This pathway of robust, easily extensible general EPP simulators, accessed via a web-server architecture is a very viable option for future development, commercialisation and/or roll-out.

Acknowledgements:

The research team acknowledges the CRC for National Plant Biosecurity (CRCNPB) for supporting this project.

The research team also expresses sincere thanks to many other researchers at UWA, DAFWA and CSIRO who have assisted with knowledge of the behavior of many pest species and with advice and feedback about the usability of the system.