There are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of invasive species that have the potential to arrive and establish in any particular region or country. Identifying which species are more likely than others to arrive and establish is extremely difficult, yet the capacity to do so is vitally important to the biosecurity of a nation.

The aim of this project was to combine arrival likelihood with establishment likelihood to generate the invasion threat to Australia for 1,486 invasive fungal pathogens and insect pests, from all countries of the world.

Research outcomes

Arrival and establishment likelihood for Australia was estimated for 1,486 invasive insect pests and fungal plant pathogens. Arrival likelihood was estimated from the level of trade occurring between Australia and all other countries in millions of US$. Establishment likelihood was estimated by completing a SOM analysis of the worldwide distribution of the 1,486 invasive species. These two estimates were combined to generate a value for the invasion threat of all species in millions of US$. Considering all plant invasive species, China, USA and Japan poses the highest source of risk.

Research implications

Biosecurity agencies can use this information for further refinement of import risk assessments and inspection protocols. Further, the methodology presented here could be applied to any number of invasive species and the outputs generated be incorporated into any consultative process currently used to prioritise pest lists.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to CABI and Sue Worner for providing the CABI data and to Liam Thammavongsa for collating and editing the CABI and the IMF DOT data.