Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools Workshop
There is a great deal of uncertainty about possible invasive species impacts on Australia, and this uncertainty often prevents the use of quantitative tools in biosecurity planning. The Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity project Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools (ERAT) is producing technologies to help plant industries plan for invasive species impacts despite this uncertainty. The project combines computer simulation models of outbreak scenarios and multi-criteria analysis to suggest the highest priority threats, and how future incursions might be managed. However, while the assessment of invasive species risks is important, the project has been designed to maximise industry uptake of biosecurity information, and hence places a strong emphasis on the communication of risk.
The ERAT team has spent much of the past year collecting the data necessary to prepare detailed threat data sheets for over 100 species that have the potential to affect Australian horticultural industries. The team have constructed and comprehensively tested the simulation model, and are currently entering the necessary parameters from the data sheets into the model so that each species has a corresponding impact simulation. While carrying out these tasks a system of reporting both data inputs and results has been developed. The system communicates in very clear, simple terms to diverse pest prioritisation groups.
Through the CRCNPB Delivery and Adoption Program, the project team held a multi-criteria workshop with stakeholders on the 6-7 May 2009 in Canberra. This workshop presented the first opportunity to use the tools developed in ERAT with an industry group. The workshop involved a set of 10 species being ranked by attendees according to a list of criteria of their choosing. To help them, the decision-making group were provided with data sheets and simulation model results prepared for each species, an independent workshop facilitator, and an interactive multi-criteria software tool. By the end of the workshop the group had produced a priority list they were comfortable with, and had used the materials provided to good effect.
To build on the success of this workshop the project team plan to hold a follow-up workshop with one industry group to prioritise an additional list of species. Other potential users of the prioritisation technique developed by the project team will be invited along to witness the technique in action. This is not linked to a workshop milestone, but the project team believes this second workshop will promote the uptake of the technique the project has developed.
Contact: Dr David Cook, david.c.cook@csiro.au
