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CRC10071: Climate Change

The project aims to determine the potential risks associated with climate change for key wheat pathogens; wheat using stripe rust, crown rot and Barley yellow dwarf virus and its aphid vector.  The research approach is three-fold:

  1. Modelling the effects of increasing temperature on the biology and distribution of pests and diseases and vectors e.g. the bird cherry oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi
  2. Collecting real-time data on host-pathogen/pest interactions from field experiments using wheat grown under elevated CO2, and
  3. Developing adaptation plans for government and industry based on the above data to mitigate any increased risks posed by climate change to biosecurity of wheat crops.

What is the biosecurity problem?

Climate change is clearly recognised as a major threat to agricultural systems. The expected increase in temperature, atmospheric CO2, heavy and unseasonal rains, increased humidity, drought and cyclones, are likely to affect crops, pests and diseases and host pathogen interactions. However, the extent to which climate change will affect emergency pests and pathogens and their hosts is not clearly understood. A review of the impacts of climate change on plant biosecurity (Aurambout et al. 2006) indicated a need to document pest and disease responses to climate change and incorporate them into our management and contingency planning. To respond to future climates, changes to industry practices and government policies may be required. This project will identify the potential risks associated with climate change and plant biosecurity.  Adaptation plans will be developed around these risks to inform industry practice and policy.

The main outputs of this project are to:

  • provide new knowledge on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on key wheat diseases, and
  • develop a series of tools to inform industry and government to enhance our contingency planning to include the influence of climate change on biosecurity

Who will be the end-users of this research?

  • Biosecurity policy and decision makers e.g. BA, OCCPO, PHA, state biosecurity agencies,
  • PHA - data and tools will enhance threat categorisation and industry biosecurity plans
  • OCCPO - data and tools may be used in incursion responses
  • Industry - to adjust management strategies and biosecurity plans and increase their level of preparedness for climate change

Climate Change Map

This is a screenshot output from the Asian citrus psyllid - citrus growth model using the IPPC A1Fi climate change scenario with a Google Earth application. The ground overlay represents daily spatial variation in the population of adult psyllids displayed sequentially in an animation of 365 frames for the year 1990. The graphics depict temporal variations in the population of the Asian citrus psyllid and increasing temperature for the years 1990, 2030 and 2070 for a specific location. A total of 11,330 graphics can be accessed in the interface (one graph for each 50 km, two-grid cell on which the model was run) providing Australian coverage can be accessed in the interface (one graph for each 50km two-grid cell on which the model was run) providing Australian coverage.



The CRCNPB would like to thank Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research for their contribution to this project.


Publications for this project

2011Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species:  Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand
2011Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models
2010Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model
2012CliMond: global high resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling
2011Climate change and diseases of food crops
2011Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance of Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America
2009A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid in Australia under climate change - a means for assessing biosecurity risk
2012The geographical distribution of yellow dwarf virus serotypes and their aphid vectors in Australia
2011The impact of elevated CO2 on Barley yellow dwarf virus and its aphid vector Rhopalosiphum padi
2011Climate Change, Biosecurity and Migratory Insect Pests: Integrating Population Dynamics with ‘Over the Horizon’ Invasion Ecology
2011Climate change implications for the pest status and vectoring potential of the bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi
2010Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement
2010Production and fitness of Fusarium pseudograminearum inoculum at elevated carbon dioxide in FACE
2010The effects of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models
2008Understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on pests and diseases of horticulture
2008Evaluating Performance of Australia's Risk Analysis System
2008Modelling the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid in Australia under increasing temperatures
2008Examining the effects of elevated CO2 on key pathogens of wheat
2009Climate change and plant biosecurity
2009An integrative approach to understanding the pest and disease threats to agricultural biosecurity under future climates
2007Identifying priorities for pest and disease research in key Victorian grain and horticultural crops under elevated CO2
2008Effects of climate change on pests and diseases of primary industry
2006The Impacts of Climate Change on Plant Biosecurity - Literature Review
2008Understanding and adapting to agricultural pests and diseases in future climates
2007Australian Grains FACE Array - Examining the effects of elevated CO2 on key wheat pathogens and vectors
2008Climate change and Plant Biosecurity. The response of key wheat pathogens to elevated CO2
2008Identifying the impacts of climate change on key pests and diseases of plant and animal industries
2008The impact of climate change on the pests and diseases of Agriculture
2007The impact of climate change on pests and diseases of Australian agriculture
2007Projecting the effects of climate change on plant biosecurity
2007Climate change and plant biosecurity
2007Crop protection in a changing climate
2007The effects of climate change on the Biosecurity of Australian Primary Industries


Dr Jo Luck
Project Leader CRC10071: Climate Change
Phone: 03 9210 9222
Fax: 03 9800 3521

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July 2007 - June 2010
$2,108,201 (cash and in-kind support)